EIA report on Energy Bill

In February 2004, Bush's Energy Information Administration (part of the U.S. Department of Energy) released a report titled "Summary Impacts of Modeled Provisions of the 2003 Conference Energy Bill." It was looking at the 2003 energy bill and came to the following conclusions about oil:

  • that gas prices would go up MORE if the energy bill passed, than if it weren't passed;
  • that petroleum consumption is going to keep increasing and that the energy bill would only slow this increase by a tiny, insignificant amount;
  • that oil imports are going to keep increasing and that the energy bill would only slow this increase by a tiny, insignificant amount.

The report can be found here:

An inquiry with the Energy Information Administration (EIA) (on whether they have an updated analysis for this year's bill or if the one from last year is still accurate for this year's bill) revealed that, although they have NOT done any update on this specific issue, there were "no major provisions added to energy bill that would swing those results in either direction either way." Also, it was pointed out that no CAFE (increase in auto fuel efficiency standards) made it into this year's bill. In other words, the report's conclusions from last year are still applicable now.

PIRG did a good write-up on the conclusions of the report in a fact sheet they put out last year. See: http://www.uspirg.org/energy/EIAFactSheet_6_2_04_.PDF or http://newenergyfuture.com/reports/eiafactsheetfinal.pdf

Here are excerpts from it:

Energy Bill Fails to Lower Gasoline Prices

The Bush administration has called on Congress to pass the energy bill to provide consumers relief from high gasoline prices. However, the EIA, the statistical arm of the Department of Energy, found that if the energy bill were passed gasoline prices would actually increase both in the short term and the long term.
  • Gasoline prices are projected to increase by 6.45 percent under business as usual by 2010. However, if the energy bill were passed, gas prices would increase by 6.6 percent by 2010.

  • By 2015, the energy bill would result in an 8.7 percent increase in gas prices, whereas current policies would result in a 6.45 percent increase.

  • In the long term, by 2025, passage of the energy bill would result in a staggering 10.3 percent increase whereas current policies would result in an 8.2 percent increase.

Energy Bill Fails to Reduce Oil Imports

Proponents of the energy bill have claimed that the bill will make America less dependent on foreign sources of energy, but EIA's analysis concludes otherwise.
  • Petroleum imports are projected to increase by 24.7 percent by 2010 under current policies; if passed, the energy bill would still result in a 23.8 percent increase in petroleum imports.

  • By 2025, U.S. imports of petroleum would actually increase by an astonishing 82.9 percent under the energy bill, only slightly lower than the 84.8 percent increase projected under business as usual.

Last modified: 14 June 2005

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